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December 27, 2008

Iraq Central Bank cutting Interest Rates

Iraq to Slash Interest Rates starting January 4th 2009.

Iraq's central bank has decided to slash interest rates by one percentage point to 14 per cent starting January 4.

The move comes in order to boost growth dented by sliding oil prices as inflation falls, the bank said.

"Owing to the fall of consumer price index in November and seeking to boost gross domestic product (GDP) ... the Iraqi central bank decided to cut rates to 14pc from 15pc, starting from January 4," a bank statement said.

Iraq's core inflation fell to an annual 12.7pc rate last month, from 13.6pc in October.

The IMF said last week that economic activity had picked up in Iraq as violence falls, but that the steep fall in oil prices had worsened its fiscal outlook. It did not give figures for GDP growth.

December 26, 2008

2009 The Year of Iraqi Elections

In the coming new year their will be five elections and one referendum. Yes I checked the scheduled and it said no RV in 2009. Yes it's true have I ever been wrong before.

Maybe after I am finishing the holidays I will list the elections that will be happening in Iraq. It will definitely will be the year of elections and changes are coming in the political spectrum. The Iraqi Speaker resigning is part of it.

The Iraqi Council of Representatives Speaker Resigns

The Iraqi Council of Representatives Speaker Mahmud al-Mashhadani just announces his resignation from his position as Speaker

This was effective 23 Dec and he gave a very outstanding speech to the council of representatives and all voted to accept his resignation.

I was going to post the reasons for the resignation but it went something like and on second thought I'll let you figure it out.


December 24, 2008

Chapter Seven Update

A lot of talk about the Chapter Seven. Let me explain it to you. The Iraqi government and the U.N. Security council are drafting a new resolution to either keep the Chapter Seven in Place or create a separate resolution.

I have mentioned this before any news media picked up on this. The new resolution or the same Chapter Seven will be extended for one year and will have six month reviews.

You really think an RV is close?

December 10, 2008

Basra thinking about own Region

It keeps getting better and better if the Kurds can have there own region why not the Arabs or maybe the Persians.

The IHEC, Independent High Electoral Commission, just announced that 34 offices inside Basra will collect signatures starting on 15 December and will continue for

The collecting of signatures has to have ten percent of the vote and if there is support then they will put that agreement to a referendum.

If a Basra region is formed then will they also sign there oil contracts with certain oil companies just like the Kurds did? Or will they not rock the boat with the central government. Maybe they don’t have too.

Tehran is heavily influenced in the Basra region as it is and I would not doubt for a minute that this Basra region referendum is what the Iranians are pushing for so that they could have more control over the Oil and Gas reserves in the Basra region.

By the way if the referendum was to be held on the Basra region it would be in three months.

Postponing governate Elections for Six Months?

In certain areas one in particular they are bringing up the issue of postponing the Iraqi provincial elections that are scheduled for 31 January 2009 for another six months.

The governate council of Diyala, Chairman Ibrahim Hasan Bajalan has said it is not appropriate to hold elections in January when most of your citizens have been displaced out of the province and over 8,000 houses have been destroyed.

The Chairman has a very good argument for holding off on elections and he is not the only one announcing this there are others.

Just don’t know if this is enough to hold off on elections next month.

Iraq Vice President Adil al-Mahdi just met with Iraq Kurdistan region President Barzani and talked about economic, political, and security issues. The Iraqi Vice President also met with Iraq President Jalal Talabani.

December 9, 2008

SOFA Agreement Update

As you all know there will be a referendum to be held before 30 June and some circles say before 31 July 2009 for the SOFA agreement. One of the reasons the SOFA was signed and approved by the Iraqi Presidency Council is the Iraqi governments were guaranteed a referendum a vote by the Iraqi people within six months. The Iraqi people will decide if the U.S. Agreement is for them or not.

If the Iraqi referendum goes against the SOFA agreement then the Iraqi government according to SOFA Agreement Article 30 Para 2 can cancel the agreement and in one year U.S. Forces have to leave Iraq.

Interesting to note that this is 16 months roughly the same time obama had said when he would like to withdraw forces from Iraq.

The SOFA Agreement will be referred next month January 2009 to the U.N. Council and U.S. Gov notified Baghdad of the their consent to release Iraq from UN Chapter 7. I am not saying that Iraq will be released from UN Chapter 7 next month it is that there is talk about it but nothing concrete.

Don’t be surprised if it goes all the way to next summer of 09 after the referendum vote to lift Chapter 7. and depending on the outcome. You pass the SOFA and will lift the Chapter 7 type of scenario. But what do I know it’s your world I am just here on leave.

Oil and Gas Law Update

The Oil and Gas Committees report at the Council of Representatives called for forming an Emergency Unit headed by Prime Minister al-Maliki to run the order Operations in the country.
The concern is the decrease in oil prices and what effect it is having on the Iraqi 2009 budget.

The Council called for the removal of the Oil Minister Husyan al-Shahristani because he is incapable of compensating for the lower oil prices by increasing production.

Iraq sells oil for 33 a barrel.

I don’t think the Oil and Gas Law will be passed anytime soon.

Plus Big Oil companies like BP, Exxon, Total were absent and did not show up for the Dec 5th Eneregy Expo in Baghdad.

December 7, 2008

Iraq Chapter Seven Update

Just received word that it will be next month Jan 2009 when they will either lift the sanction or start the negotiations for lifting it.

The SOFA agreement will continue start on 1 January 2009.

December 6, 2008

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan New Leadership

The PUK Secretary General also the Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, has made the decision to delegate all his powers as PUK Party leader to his two deputies.

The memo read:

“Mr. Secretary-General told the attendants that based on the powers granted to him according to the internal party regulations, he will grant all his powers to his two deputies, Iraqi Deputy Premier Barhim Salih and Kurdistan Regional government Vice-President Kosrat Rasul. The party’s official outlets were observed to continue to refer to him as the Party’s Secretary-General after 3 Dec.
President Talabani had also sent a letter to the PUK Political Bureau which said “his deputies have the same powers as him to make decisions in his absence.”
End of memo information.

Now you would have to wonder why President Talabani is delegating his powers. What is he (Iraq President) getting in return?

Notice that he is still the Secretary-General of the PUK. I guess when things go bad as President you can always head back to above the green line.

Let’s keep watching President Talabani because something is surely in the works. Do you know?

Iraq Oil and Gas Law

This law is not even close to being completed when you have the Iraqi Oil Minister Husayn al-Shahristani, continuing to give interviews on Iraqi TV denouncing the oil contracts signed by the Kurdistan government with foreign oil companies as illegal contracts.

Talks are still ongoing between the Central Baghdad government and the Kurdistan Regional government. There are other underlying issues concerning the Iraq oil and gas law maybe some other time I will comment on them in more detail.

December 5, 2008

Iraq Chapter Seven

In regards to the Iraq U.N. Charter Chapter Seven this will not be lifted until a new U.N. Resolution has been issued to protect Iraqs Funds in the United States and the Central Bank of Iraq DFI Funds Baghdad office.

Remember that Iraq controls these funds now, only under U.N. resolutions and they need another U.N. Resolution for one year in order to protect these assets.

Also the DFI funds will remain in New York and with the CBI Baghdad and will not be held by any other bank.

American Contractor

December 4, 2008

Protecting Iraq's Money

The next important thing that the Iraqi government has to accomplish which is vital to the people of Iraq and that is to protect their assets abroad. If they do not accomplish this in a timely fashion then Iraq will go back to the ways of the previous regime when they sold oil for cash and way below market value just like saddam did in the oil for food program.

Everything would come to a standstill because the Iraqi government funds that are on deposit in the Development Fund Iraq (DFI) would be seized if no agreement is put in place.
If you remember in December 2007 the U.N. Security Council passed resolution 1790 until December 31, 2008 for when U.S. Forces will remain in Iraq. The effective date of the newly passed SOFA agreement is January 1, 2009.

In regards to the DFI funds which in February 2005 the Iraqi government deposited $5billion dollars into an account at the Federal Reserve Bank New York and earning interest. There is also another DFI account with the Central Bank of Iraq – Baghdad that is used to pay for rations, fuel subsidies, social security, government salaries and other government expenditures.

When U.N. resolution 1790 was issued President Bush signed an executive order protecting the Iraq DFI funds in and outside the United States which allowed Iraq to continue selling oil at the market value and have the funds continues to deposit into the DFI accounts in New York and the Central Bank of Iraq DFI account.

President Bush executive order expires May 2009. If no new agreement is signed the Iraq funds would be seized by Iraq’s creditors’ and individuals that have brought on lawsuits against Iraq. If Iraq does not get the new U.N. resolution which would be a limited one like one to two years to protect the funds then anyone who has filed a claim against the government of Iraq would automatically seize the funds in the DFI account in New York.

This would cause Iraq to stop oil sales as the money goes to the New York account first then to the account in Baghdad. If the DFI account in New York has been seized by a court action then Iraq would be forced to sell oil for cash only because it could not deposit money into account that has been seized. It would go back to the ways of the oil for food program of the nineties. Severely crippling Iraq, as they have been trying to get their infrastructure into the 21st century and now can’t pay for any projects because there funds have been seized.
This is very serious and hope that Iraq can get the new agreements and soon before the deadline.

Important dates to remember in 2009:

January 31, 2009 Provincial Elections

June 30, 2009 Referendum on the agreement with the United States.


Article 26 of the SOFA Agreement:

Article 26

Iraqi Assets

1. To enable Iraq to continue to develop its national economy through the rehabilitation of its economic infrastructure, as well as providing necessary essential services to the Iraqi people, and to continue to safeguard Iraq’s revenues from oil and gas and other Iraqi resources and its financial and economic assets located abroad, including the Development Fund for Iraq, the United States shall ensure maximum efforts to:

a. Support Iraq to obtain forgiveness of international debt resulting from the policies of the former regime.

b. Support Iraq to achieve a comprehensive and final resolution of outstanding reparation claims inherited from the previous regime, including compensation requirements imposed by the UN Security Council on Iraq.

2. Recognizing and understanding Iraq’s concern with claims based on actions perpetrated by the former regime, the President of the United States has exercised his authority to protect from United States judicial process the Development Fund for Iraq and certain other property in which Iraq has an interest. The United States shall remain fully and actively engaged with the Government of Iraq with respect to continuation of such protections and with respect to such claims.

3. Consistent with a letter from the President of the United States to be sent to the Prime Minister of Iraq, the United States remains committed to assist Iraq in connection with its request that the UN Security Council extend the protections and other arrangements established in Resolution 1483 (2003) and Resolution 1546 (2003) for petroleum, petroleum products, and natural gas originating in Iraq, proceeds and obligations from sale thereof, and the Development Fund for Iraq.

December 3, 2008

U.S. Banks and the Iraqi Dinar

After the signing of the SOFA agreement between Iraq and the United States government, banks world wide will soon stop selling the Iraqi Dinar for good. Banks will be distancing themselves from any liability that they have been placing themselves in since the Iraqi law forbids Iraqi Dinar from leaving its borders.

The SOFA Agreement Article 20 also states in plain English that it is illegal to export Iraqi Dinar currency. The Iraqi government placed this in there because they are fully aware of how much dinar is outside the borders of Iraq.

The Iraqi government has put banking institutions on notice to stop this practice of selling their Iraqi currency. When you have it stated inside the text of the SOFA agreement, you know their serious about protecting their economy. I have mentioned this in this blog about currency leaving Iraq being illegal just nobody believes it.

On another note 2009 will be much the same as 2008.

Have a great day!