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September 29, 2006

Iraq and China Oil Deal

I’ve told you the past that I like the good Dr. Hussain Al-Shahristani, because he travels to other countries and he closes oil deals. I also mentioned on this blog that he was going to China either after going to Australia or before, I guessed he chose after the trip to Down Under. I am wondering when is the Oil Ministry of Iraq going to visit Houston? You can read the article here.

First, it was Russia and now China it appears that Iran has a lot of influence on all the energy deals that have come about lately and this is no coincidence. For Russia and China firm stance on the Iranian nuclear crisis this is both there countries rewards, and it is oil and energy contracts and I am sure more are to come in other sectors and industries for both these countries.

My post about China.

September 23, 2006

Iraq Stock Exchange E-Trading Update

Last June 06 I posted a memo about the company called The OMX Group being awarded the contract to set up the electronic trading platform for the Iraq Stock Exchange in Baghdad. The OMX Group is still currently working on the electronic system for the ISX.

Acdc has received an update to this operation of getting the ISX up and operational in a electronic capacity and information received from a credible source is the electronic trading platform will not be ready and fully tested until May 2007. They are expecting the electronic platform to be ready and fully operational in June 2007, if everything goes according to plan.

This is still positive for all you investors already investing and trading in the ISX. It gives you more time to invest more funds and make gains from now until next May when the electronic trading starts we all hope inside Iraq.

Karsazan Group

This is an investment and commercial group made up of fifty Turkish and Kurdish companies that are operating in northern Iraq. One of the goals of the group is to unite all the Turkish companies, into this group along with the Kurdish companies so they become one powerful group that can meet all construction needs and meet any need in any industry and bid and fulfill contracts they seem fit to bid on.

It is a good move I wonder if they have any bankers in the group. I will also say that there are over 300 Turkish companies working inside of Iraq.

September 19, 2006

This week in Iraq

I have mentioned before that I like the Ministry of Oil Dr. Husayn Al-Shahrastani, because he gets all the perks and travels to different countries in the region and signs and gets deals. This week it has already been reported that he is off again to Australia to meet with government officials there and either after the trip or before he is going to make a quick stop in China to meet with Chinese officials.

The good Dr. has been reconsidering some oil and energy contracts with the Chinese and will be stopping there as I have said either before or after the down under trip.

The Chinese are very interested in developing the Al-Ahdab oil field in Wasit, Iraq and after the visit from the MOI of Iraq look for an agreement soon.

On another matter the Central Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against the founders and the employees of The National Security for Iraq protection Organization, which was responsible for protection of fuel tankers transporting fuel from Basra through out Iraq.

These arrest warrants are a positive step to stop corruption with the criminals that are smuggling oil.


I had a list of some of the bills that the Iraqi Ministries and Parliament will be negotiating and voting on and I am adding a few more to the list.


Disarming and Demobilizing Militias

Debathification

Revision of Constitution

Federal Control over Oil Revenues

Foreign Investment Bill

Private Import and Selling of Oil Derivates Bill

Social Protection Network Bill

IECI Bill

Extension of the Emergency Law

The International Mine Ban Treaty

The Chemical Weapons Convention

September 18, 2006

Iraq Political Showdown

For all you dedicated readers of American Contractor dotcom (ACDC) you thought that last years constitution government meetings were long and drawn out which it was, I don’t believe you have seen long and drawn out on what is going to occur in the next several weeks with the Iraqi government if not longer.

There are several issues that are currently at Iraqi government level and to get accomplished this requires debating and voting on several bills and participation from the Iraqi parliament. The one bill that is going to cause the biggest political showdown is the bill of federalism, you know the dividing Iraq into federal territories.

If you have been following along with current events in Baghdad you would know they had a scheduled meeting on 16 Sept with various political parties and was postponed. The reason supposedly was so no one would leak each others arguments to the news media.

This federalism bill has sparked a wide rage of interest and controversy from different political parties and also opponents to the bill. Some political groups see it as an opportunity to unite territories under the umbrella of Federalism, others think of it as a way to divide Iraq into small sectarian states and then there are others are concerned about the timing.

In order for the pro-federalism to win this, the leaders representing the Kurdistan Alliance and the United Iraqi Alliance need to alleviate the understandable fears of the conflicting camps and lastly, to also alleviate the growing suspicion in Washington that the southern region in Iraq being promoted by the SCIRI political group in favor of federalism does not develop into an extension of Iran.

Iranian influence in southern Iraq is overwhelming according to frequent news reports and it is growing everyday. The Iraqi PM recently traveled to visit with the Iranian President and signed three memos of agreements for energy, economy, and other areas.

Certain sources in Iraq already believe that Iraq is already divided up indirectly based on sectarian hatred and death squad’s execution campaigns from the different areas of Iraq. If the hard core groups don’t accept federalism they can blame themselves if Iraq turns into a partitioned state.

ACDC sources say that possibly the federalism will pass after a grueling ordeal however, they would not implement the plan until a later date. It goes back to the timing of the event.

This bill will most likely hinder the Iraq PM Maliki National Reconciliation Project.

Cancel Meter Contracts

An American Company that had the contract to install meters for the oil wells in the south have or are about have their contracts cancelled according to the Oil Ministry. They either don’t have any meters or have meters but they don’t work. So I am wondering how do the Iraq Oil Ministry know how much oil is being exported if your meters are missing or not working properly. Read my oil mafia article, I think it is in there favor if the meters don’t work get it.

ACDC sources say that the Oil Ministry is reconsidering Chinese company contracts in the oil industry. You should have known, the Russians and the Chinese have energy contracts in Iran worth billions. And now both are coming into Iraq to get a foot print there.

Do you blame them, if something say was supposedly going to happen in Iran in regards to there Nuclear reactor, I know what there thinking, lets hedge ourselves my Chinese friends by obtaining an oil contract in Iraq. I lose Iran contracts and I gained an Iraq energy contract. It’s all about business and I sure hope the Russians got paid upfront for the contracts in Iran.

The Russian Oil Deal

Three years ago the Russians decided to write off 10 billion of Iraqi debts in an international agreement with other Paris Club members. After several years of delay in actually sealing this deal, now the Russians have said they will go ahead and write off the 10 billion minus the 1 billion in accrued interest.

It is apparent the Russian government was stalling in writing off the debt to use this as leverage to acquire an oil contract in the southern oil fields of Iraq. Nothing was guaranteed but in any case it worked.

An agreement has been made with the Iraqi government and the Russians last June for the training of Iraqi’s in the oil industry by technical advisors from the Russian State owned Lukoil.

Russian officials did not want to officially write off the debt until guarantees were made to the Russian government that they too were to gain a lucrative oil contract in Iraq’s southern oil fields after the oil contracts pre-invasion were canceled by the Coalition Provisional Authority. Those contracts canceled were worth billions to the Russian government.

Now that the Russians State owned Oil Company Lukoil have an agreement with the Iraq Oil Ministry they have decided to write off the debt except for the 1 billion in accrued interest payable over a course of several years.

If Russia didn’t receive an Iraqi oil contract chances are most likely that they would have postponed the 10 billion write off. You will see now in the not so distant future Russian technical advisors traveling to Iraq to assist in developing the Qurna-2 oil field in southern Iraq if and when the security situation is at a more manageable level.

The sell of oil will always be in US dollars. I just had to say that I hear there’s people thinking Iraq is going to let the Russians buy the oil in Rubles.

September 17, 2006

Got Sources?!!

Two months ago on 10 June I posted a comment about the Iraqi oil workers some, not all were in Russia, receiving some technical training in the oil industry.

On 28 August I posted a comment about the Russians close to signing agreements with the South Oil Company for oil wells in southern Iraq.

Now today 17 September it has been reported via Kuna web site that the Russian oil company Lukoil has signed new contracts with the South Oil Company for oil wells in the South.

BAGHDAD, Sep 17 (KUNA) - The Iraqi Oil Ministry will revise contracts signed with a Russian oil company during the rule of the defunct regime of Saddam Hussein, Al-Sabah paper, the government mouthpiece said Sunday.

The paper quoted an official source from the Oil Ministry saying the Lukoil Oil Company was scheduled to invest in several oil wells in the southern region of Iraq.

He added that members of Lukoil visited the ministry and expressed their desire to carry on with the deal, pointing out that the ministry will revise all contracts signed during Saddam Hussein's rule, as he used the deals for political interests.

For all my dedicated readers I am sure you picked up on this, I am just pointing this out so you know I think I have a good source. There is another element that the Russians are bringing to the table and I'll save that for another post. I wonder if somebody will figure it out if you do please write to me here, would love to hear your point of view on the Russians coming to Iraq.


September 15, 2006

Iraqi Association of Securities Dealers

Awhile back I had sent the Executive Manager of the IASD some questions and he was so kind to respond to them. I will list some of the question and answers here so you can read them with the Managers permission of course.

13 September 2006

1. What is The Iraqi Association of Securities Dealers.

IASD registers member firms, and provides education to industry professionals in order for them to be licensed by the Commission. We also provide information to investors. Established in September 2004 with a total of 51 brokerage companies, the IASD is administered by a Board and by member Committees. IASD Secretariat provides services for members, issuers, administration, and training to brokers and principals to obtain their license.


2. Would you explain your position and just a little of your background and how you obtained the position you now have? Give info what you feel comfortable of giving.

I am the Executive manager of the IASD, directs the activities of the Association including training, advocacy, and outreach efforts aimed at promoting the overall interest of the organization. I acquired early in my education life GCE O & A levels from the UK, BSC in Science from the University of Baghdad and a Diploma in Financing SMEs from the Arab Institute for Banking in Amman. I have long experience in Portfolio management at the first Financial Investment Company in Iraq ,Alamin FI CO, also a listed on the ISX and have worked after that in a number of international organizations in the promotion and developments of the capital market environments in Iraq, Visited the UK in 2005 showcasing the investment opportunities in Iraq to major Capital and financial Investments Institutions. I was approached by my colleagues in the business to run this young organization and felt this is a real challenge to me, and have made several achievements in developing the Association.

3. What is your projection of the Iraq Stock Exchange short term and long term?

The corner stone of any market is a proper and robust legislation, which people trust, once you have such a system in place then investors can trust there would be accountable reporting measures, well defined disclosure mechanism of companies and well defined roll for the commission oversight. There are enormous tasks ahead before a law can be in place to redirect the market into a more lucrative path; A law of such a national importance can develop to become the backbone of the economy. The Securities Law has to address the defaults that have stifled developments so far and could not produce a proper conduit for foreign investment. If those concerns are met then I would expect the market to encounter a real recovery, robust and sustainable development in trading activities. The recent development in prices and the previous decline was mainly due to a rumor that a new investment law is a bout to be passed by parliament; this triggered a new wave of anticipation that finally the country is moving out of its long stagnation; this is a clear indication that the market has the potential of development. Drafting one law is not enough there should be a whole sense of liberation from the old socialist ideologies that the country finds very difficult to get rid off. The Free market Economy is the only way out for Iraq and that would also involve a minimum public involvement. Iraq is brimming with opportunities for investment and holds the third largest oil reserves in the world. So I think there are enormous opportunities for investment on the long run.

4. Do you have any contact with the Central Bank of Iraq? If you do in what capacity?

As an Association we are in close cooperation with ISC & ISX and have no working strategies with the Central Bank.

5. Where do you see the IASD in short term and long term?

I think the IASD could develop to become the privet sector safe guard, protecting the interests of investors, capacity building of its members, advocating for reforms and developing public awareness that would enhance efforts for a viable economy. IASD is an NGO and transparent in its activities it could acquire a profound position in the capital market components. IASD is already helping the market develop courses for brokers, to achieve a real synergy when finally automation is implemented at the ISX.

6. When will testing of the Electronic Trading on the ISX be completed? And when do you think it will open to the Region, such as neighboring Gulf Countries for actual real time trades?

Hopefully automation trading would be tested by June next year a system for, electronic clearance and settlement in trading, would include a depository, registry, Trading and clearance & settlement. I think opening to foreign investment and trading would depend on the investment law, and that shouldn't take too long.

7. Do you see the Iraq Stock Exchange growing in the number of companies trading on the floor?

This should be one of the priorities of any market, because it’s a profit driven entity. There have be substantial growth in the number of listed companies over the past few months, at the ISX, from 85 in June 2005 to 93 companies in July 2006.

8. What would be the average price per share on the ISX in a more stable Iraq? What would be the minimum and what do you believe would be the maximum share Price?

The banking sector is the most favorable. 1 ID should be the minimum, but that would depend on the performance of companies and their capital. There is no upper or lower price limit on the ISX, it is a free market.

9. Is trading on the Iraq Stock Exchange out of the norm in the last 60 days? What could be the potential in your opinion?

Of course the prices are just unbelievable, normally prices are affected by performance of companies but when there is a general price decline, then that is certainly abnormal. I think the market would retain the normal prices traded before the sharp decline.

10. When do you believe the Central Bank of Iraq will revalue the Iraqi Dinar to a more legitimate exchange rate then the de facto peg as it currently stands?

I don’t see why the Central Bank needs to revalue the Currency, the exchange rate is almost stable.

11. The Iraqi Dinar has several security features on the banknote itself is there still a lot of counterfeit Iraqi Dinar in circulation?

I don’t know the figures of counterfeits in the country, however the currency in all its notes has several security features much better that the old notes before march 2003.

12. Do you believe the Central Bank of Iraq will replace the current banknotes and replace them with a new banknote?

May be they need to introduce coins and higher valued currency for easy transfers.

14. When do you see Iraq printing there own currency?

It has never happened in the past and I don’t think it needs to happen now.


September 10, 2006

Federal Blocs Bill

The deadline for the Federal Blocs Bill was 16 September and now has been moved to 22 October. This is significant because it shows that maybe the Iraqi government is willing to work while celebrating Ramadan. As I have listed before there is several bills that are in need of approval and passage by the Iraqi parliament.

List of some of the Bills here.

Upcoming Events In Iraq

Here is a list of events that I have compiled.

Iraq Security, Technology & Communications Summit
12-13 September 2006, UAE

Erbil International Fair For Iraq Rebuild 2006
Erbil, Iraq
Sept 14 – 17 2006

Political Forces Conference
21 Sept 2006
Erbil Iraq

The Iraqi Importers and Businessmen Meeting in Rotterdam.
Netherlands
Oct 8 – 13 2006
Investment in The Middle east Oil: What is at Stake?
Chatham, House London, U.K.

1st Gulf Iraqi Expo 2007
Kingdom of Bahrain
March 24-26 2007
Hosted by the Iraq Ministry of Trade

September 9, 2006

Ramadi Bank Robbed

I forgot to mention the latest bank robbery in Iraq. The Ramadi Bank was robbed of 6 million of the government funds. Unknown if it was usd or Iraqi Dinar.

You still think were close to an rv?


New Currency Just Announced in 2007

They are some that believe when you change a countries currency that this causes the loss of confidence in their currency. I believe just the opposite and soon as expected you will see Iraq doing the same thing. Saudi Arabia has no problem with changing their currency with just a little over three years before joining the premier GCC and starting a single currency monopoly.

JEDDAH, 5 September 2006 — Saudi Arabia will issue new currency notes and coins by the middle of next year incorporating additional security features as the Council of Ministers yesterday gave the green signal to the project.

Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency Governor Hamad Al-Sayari said the Saudi central bank would circulate the new issues by the second quarter of next Hijrah year.

“The circulation of bills and coins currently in the market will continue without any change in their values,” Sayari told Saudi Press Agency, adding that the new security features would strengthen public confidence in the currency.

New Meeting between Groups

The head of the Sunni Religious group and the head of the Shiite will be meeting soon, and hopefully come to an agreement and stop the violence between the two groups. Maybe both will come to terms during their Ramadan. We shall wait and see. Ramadan starts 24 September.

Another New Group

Highly Educated Kurds have come to together and formed a new group "The Kurdistan National Message Party”. and not sure what the group is all about. I like to see the unity and the Iraqi’s coming together instead of killing each other. I hope more groups form and get the peace process going for the better.

September 4, 2006

Iraq Parliament Bills

When the parliament reconvenes next week here are a few Bills on the table.

Foreign Investment Bill

Private Import and Selling of Oil Derivates Bill

Social Protection Network Bill

IECI Bill

Extension of the Emergency Law

The International Mine Ban Treaty

The Chemical Weapons Convention

PM Al-Maliki Visiting Iran

Next week PM al-Maliki will be visiting Iran on official visit after the Deputy Prime Minister of Iraq also visits the Iranian government. I think Iran will be a big winner for future contracts in the oil industry of Iraq. The Iraqi oil Ministry al-Shahrastani gets to keep his job after sealing the deal with Iranian government and I am sure the Iranian influence within the Iraqi government is firm and not willing to let the Iraqi government govern the Iraqi people without influence from them.

After PM al-Maliki returns from visiting the Persians look for new contract deals in the near future.